Kentucky Derby: Will Bob Baffert win in return to Churchill Downs?

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The Kentucky Derby is back to normal.

Gone is all the talk about the best horses not being there because the trainer of more Derby winners than anyone currently in the sport wasn’t there. Gone is all the talk about a spike in fatalities and the lack of understanding as to why it was happening. Gone is the intrigue about the status of the favorite and if he will run. And gone is the self-congratulatory pomp and circumstance over the 150th running of the most well-known horse race in the world.

Welcome to Kentucky Derby 151.

Saturday’s race could signal a resurgence of Southern California’s status as the training ground of Derby champions, the last coming in the screwed-up COVID-plagued year of 2020 when Authentic won the race in September. This year’s favorite is based at Santa Anita.

The field is considered very competitive, although maybe not very strong at the top. And what about the horses coming from Japan and the Middle East?

All these questions and more will be answered by 4:05 p.m. PDT on Saturday. But until then, here are five storylines that will dominate the conversation in anticipation of horse racing’s biggest race.

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Can Bob Baffert win in his first year back?

Bob Baffert watches the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita.

Of course. Baffert’s program is built around developing 2-year-olds into 3-year-olds who can win one (or more) of the Triple Crown races. He has won six Derbies and 17 Triple Crown races. And let’s not forget about two Triple Crowns with American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018.

This year Baffert is bringing 2-year-old Eclipse champion Citizen Bull (20-1), winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Citizen Bull was an early favorite for the Derby, but a disappointing and uninspiring fourth in the Santa Anita Derby made people look elsewhere. If you draw a line through that race, his numbers are very impressive.

Baffert also has Rodriguez (12-1), winner of the Wood Memorial and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. With a 20-horse field, Rodriguez’s front running style should keep him out of trouble if he can avoid a speed duel and handle the 1¼-mile distance.

Baffert was hoping Barnes, a $3.2-million purchase, would make the Derby but his fifth- and last-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby left him short of qualifying points.

Baffert returns to the Derby following a three-year ban after Medina Spirit tested positive for a medication not legal on race day. There was a slew of litigation and it ended when Baffert accepted responsibility for the positive test, which led to Medina Spirit’s disqualification.

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Can Journalism win the Kentucky Derby?

He’s the favorite, and why not? Journalism has won four in a row, including the Santa Anita Derby, where he beat Citizen Bull and Baeza, and the San Felipe Stakes, where he beat Barnes and Rodriguez. He’s done everything asked of him and done it effortlessly, which is why the morning line made him the 3-1 favorite.

If there were one race that stamped Journalism as the Derby favorite it was the Santa Anita Derby, where he overcame extreme trouble when a horse backed up on him, forcing him to re-rally, which he did to win convincingly.

“I think it’s something you need to do,” trainer Michael McCarthy said after the race. “Obviously in a five-horse field like he did [in the Santa Anita Derby] if he can’t do it against five then he will have an awfully hard time doing it against 20 [in the Kentucky Derby].”

The thing to remember about the Kentucky Derby, and pretty much every race, is the best horse doesn’t always win.

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Who has the edge after the post-position draw?

There is little doubt that Journalism was not hurt by Saturday’s draw. Breaking from the eight, he has speed inside of him and his most formidable opponents are far outside of him. That’s known as the sweet spot, a place where he, and jockey Umberto Rispoli, can make decisions about how to run the race.

“I would have been happy with anything between 5 and 12, 13, 14, 15,” trainer Michael McCarthy told Horse Racing Nation. “With a horse like him, he gives you a lot of confidence. It really wouldn’t have mattered where he’d have drawn.”

The two Baffert horses both drew inside with Citizen Bull getting the dreaded one spot and Rodriguez in the four. The one is not as horrible a post as it used to be since Churchill Downs built a 20-horse gate, meaning the one horse isn’t right against the rail. Instead, there is a little breathing room, but it also doesn’t mean that a horse on the inside should go to the lead to avoid getting trapped.

Horses considered to be the biggest threat to Journalism drew the far outside, with Sandman (6-1) in the 17 and Sovereignty (5-1) in the 18.

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Have they corrected the horse death situation?

Two years ago, the topic at Churchill Downs was the sudden spike in horse deaths. Seven horses died in 10 days, and 12 died before racing was suspended at Churchill Downs and moved to Ellis Park. Based on the parameters of the arcane Equine Injury Database, where only racing deaths are counted, Churchill’s spring meet had 5.39 deaths for every 1,000 starts, as computed by The Times. The national average for all tracks in the survey was 1.32 for the year.

Incomplete as the EID results were, all Churchill Downs tracks refused to make their statistics public, and they were only lumped in as part of the overall numbers.

The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority vowed transparency and, after a squishy answer for the delay of 2023 results, released all racing and training deaths for 2024. Previously only California and New York were publicly releasing data. Based on last year’s reported results, in an unscientific melding of numbers by The Times based on racing and training deaths, Churchill Downs had a higher fatality rate than both Del Mar and Santa Anita, which had the lowest of the three. (Neither the Churchill Downs Training Center nor San Luis Rey Downs — owned by Santa Anita — were included in the calculations.)

So far (as of Saturday), one horse has died at Churchill Downs since training was allowed before the Derby. Valley of Fire, a 3-year-old gelding, broke both front legs during training and was euthanized on the track. Tappan Street, winner of the Florida Derby and considered a strong contender for the Kentucky Derby, on Saturday fractured his right front condylar and will miss the race. The injury is not considered life-threatening.

As for the reason for the deaths two years ago, HISA investigated and produced a 197-page report that was full of bells and whistles but short on any sort of answer. There was no singular reason.

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Who is a long-shot choice?

There is a lot of outside interest in Baeza, a maiden winner that finished second in the Santa Anita Derby. The colt is steadily improving, and trainer John Shirreffs is known as a trainer who does not run unless the horse is ready. His early thinking was thought to be to run in the Preakness Stakes rather than the Derby to avoid a wait-and-see scenario. But the horse is now on the bubble waiting for a spot to open up by Friday morning. He’s next in line to make the starting field.

So how can an “also eligible” horse win the Derby? Look no further than 2023, when Rich Strike drew in late and won.

Two horses that ran overseas might have a shot at victory. Luxor Cafe (15-1) has won four in a row, and Admire Daytona (30-1) won the UAE Derby. Some bettors automatically throw out horses whose last races were in Japan or the Middle East. At some point, one of those horses is going to win. The only question is when? Until then, smart money has mostly stayed away from them until it’s proven they can win after such a long ship to the U.S.

It won’t be a long-shot price, but there is a lot of interest in Sandman (6-1), winner of the Arkansas Derby.