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Baeza might be good enough to win the Kentucky Derby. But will the horse get a chance?

Kentucky Derby alternate Baeza works out at Churchill Downs Monday, April 28, 2025.
Kentucky Derby alternate Baeza works out at Churchill Downs on Monday.
(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press)

Trainer John Shirreffs is a patient man. He takes his time developing horses. He doesn’t rush them to the track. He doesn’t put them in races until he believes they are ready.

But he is at Churchill Downs with a horse that is more than ready but currently doesn’t have a spot in the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.

Baeza, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby, is on the outside looking in, needing one horse to scratch before Friday morning to make the starting field. The term is “also eligible,” meaning eligible if a spot opens. It’s like being on the bubble for a seat on an airplane when the flight is completely booked.

“It’s very awkward,” Shirreffs said standing outside Barn 41 on the Churchill Downs backstretch. “It’s tough to come over here and not know you’re going to run. And then to wait to see if somebody has to scratch, and that’s not something you hope for. You want everybody to enjoy their Derby experience. So, it’s very awkward, but because he has that opportunity it would be a shame if something like that happened and he wasn’t here to run.”

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Bob Baffert is back at the Kentucky Derby, and he has two of the race favorites. But can they beat favorite Journalism in horse racing’s crown jewel?

The crazy thing is normally the second-place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby is guaranteed a spot in Louisville because of the 50 points associated with the result. But this year, Churchill Downs started penalizing races that do not have enough starters. This year’s Santa Anita Derby had five starters, meaning the point total was 75% of normal. If it had dropped to four starters, it would been reduced to 50%.

Baeza has 37.5 points while the horse in front of him, Render Judgment, has 39. Render Judgment made the field when Tappan Street, winner of the Florida Derby, sustained a minor injury and was pulled from the race.

Shirreffs is not only patient, but cautious, too, based on his answer about the fairness of the new Derby points rules.

“I hear all the time, that’s the system, and there is no changing that,” Shirreffs said. “So, I don’t really have an opinion on that. That’s above my responsibilities. It’s just unfortunate it happened to Baeza this year.”

Shirreffs’ original plan was to skip the Derby and point to the Preakness Stakes so he wouldn’t be in this position.

“Well, that was my thought,” Shirreffs said. “But after analyzing the situation and the possibilities and, once again, the Kentucky Derby is the race, so [owners] Mr. [Lee] Searing and Mr. [Robert] Clay decided why not take a chance and see if he gets in.”

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Two years ago, Shirreffs was at Churchill Downs ready to put Skinner in the Derby. However, the colt, owned by Lee and Susan Searing, developed a fever and was scratched.

The Santa Anita Derby was the only points race for Baeza, a $1.2 million son of McKinzie. As a May foal, he was a little late developing. It took him three tries to break his maiden and his fourth race was the Santa Anita Derby.

Thoroughbred trainer John Shirreffs at Keeneland Race Course.
Thoroughbred trainer John Shirreffs
(Horsephotos / Getty Images)

Shirreffs, 79, is not a trainer under the radar. He won the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacomo but he’s best known for training Zenyatta, considered by many the best female horse ever. Zenyatta won 19 of her 20 races, sometimes against male horses, losing her last race in the Breeders’ Cup Classic by a head.

Shirreffs grew up around horses since his father owned some. He didn’t immediately go into the horse business but instead joined the Marines and was shipped to Vietnam.

“When I got back from Vietnam, I had no place to go,” Shirreffs said. “But I had a friend who knew somebody, so they said, ‘Come on out west, John.’ So, I came out west.”

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Initially, Shirreffs worked on a cattle ranch in Lincoln, Calif., 10 miles north of Roseville.

“So, here I am a New Yorker,” he said. “I don’t know anything about that except I’ve seen a lot of cowboy movies. So, Jim Matthews pulls up in his trailer, he has his horse set, he backs his horse out of the trailer. He’s got a Queensland Hill or an Australian Shepherd (dogs). He jumps up on his horse. … He takes out his rope, he slaps his horse and off he goes over to the brush. Oh my God, that’s a cowboy.”

Shirreffs went to work for Matthews but it only paid room and board. One day, Matthews gave Shirreffs a horse to sell.

Journalism, the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby at 3-1 odds, will start in a tactically favorable position for race’s 151st edition on Saturday.

“I’m riding this horse across this field and I get stuck in this mud bog,” Shirreffs said. “It just so happens at this place, there’s a manager from a thoroughbred farm standing up on the hill. I get the horse out of the mud and Henry Freitus (of Loma Rica Horse Ranch) says to me ‘John, you like to come and work for me?’ And I said, well, sure, you know, I get paid here, right?

“One day in he says, ‘John, you want to take my horses to the fairs?’ I said, ‘Sure, Henry, I’d love to do that.’ That’s how it all started. You know, I never planned it and the opportunity just presented itself each time and when I was fortunate enough … and with my experience, whatever level, got me to the next level.”

Asked which was more harrowing, Vietnam or the racing business, Shirreffs demurred.

“Well, we don’t want to talk about that,” he said with a laugh.

As for this wait-and-see week, he’ll have his answer by 9 a.m. Friday.

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